Kusama (KSM) has broken down from a long-term horizontal support level and is currently attempting to find a suitable level for a bottom.
KSM has been falling at an accelerated rate since Nov. 2021, when it had just reached a high of $554 (red circle). The downward movement created a lower high relative to the May all-time high, and also served to validate the $530 area as resistance. The price has never reached a close above this area.
The decrease eventually caused a breakdown below the $190 area, and its validation as support on April 2022 (red icon). As a result, the next closest support area is at $35, very close to the all-time lows.
The RSI supports the continuation of the downward movement towards this area. The reason for this is that it fell below 50 (black icon) for the first time in history on Nov. 2021 and has been decreasing since.
Short-term KSM movement
Cryptocurrency trader and investor @cryptowithjoe tweeted a chart of KSM which shows that the price is following a descending resistance line
KSM seems to be following two descending resistance lines, one which began on April 22 (solid) and is more gradual, and the other that began on April 2 and is steep (dashed).
While there are no signs that would suggest a bullish reversal is forthcoming, the daily RSI fell to 18 on May 11. This is a new all-time low value. Therefore, according to the daily RSI, KSM has never been this oversold.
The two-hour chart shows that KSM is trading right at the resistance line of an ascending channel that has been in place since May 12.
The fact that the ongoing bounce can be contained inside a parallel channel is a bearish sign since it indicates that it is corrective, and a breakdown from it would be likely.
Wave count analysis
The wave count indicates that KSM began a five-wave downward movement at the beginning of April.
If so, it has currently bounced after completing wave three, meaning that it is now in wave four.
The most likely level for the wave to top would be close to $110, at the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level and the support line of the previous parallel channel.
This would complete a fourth wave pullback, prior to another drop towards the all-time low support region at $35.
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