Following a bullish rebound over the past few days, Bitcoin has once again reached the critical resistance zone of $45K.
The good news is that the price has broken above the 100-day moving average line, followed by a bullish rally compiled of five green daily candles.
The Daily Chart
Technical Analysis By Shayan
The BTC price is currently aiming for another attempt to break the critical resistance level of $45K. If it succeeds, breaching above the $46K supply zone could be imminent and a possible attempt to retest $50K.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s path to the $50K – $60K channel in the higher timeframes has two primary resistance levels:
The first lies at the $46K supply zone, which is a significant resistance zone, and the price is currently trying to break above it. On the other hand, the 200-day moving average is the second – now lies around $48K. If Bitcoin breaks above the moving average, the reversal will likely be confirmed, and a new bullish rally will follow.
The following chart shows that the price has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is a strong indicator of a solid bullish recovery based on the price action patterns.
Bitcoin has achieved a significant resistance level around $45K and its previous peak, increasing the chances of a double top price action pattern emerging. From here, there are two possible scenarios in the short term:
- Bitcoin breaks above the $46K resistance level, consolidate in the shape of a pullback to the broken level and then resumes its spike towards the 200-day moving average and the $50K-$60K channel in the following days.
- Bitcoin breaks above the supply zone, absorb all of the above liquidity, and then plummets to lower demand/support areas, triggering another round of futures market liquidations. In the lower timeframes, the primary support levels will be the yellow trendline and the bottom trendline of the bearish continuation correction flag.
On-chain Analysis By Edris
Short Term Holder SOPR (EMA 7)
Bitcoin’s price has recently rallied towards $45K, and short-term holders are starting to realize profits. After three months of constant loss realization by the short-term holders, this cohort is back ‘above water,’ and some are using this exit liquidity to get out of the market.
Short-term holders are considered market participants who have entered the market in the last 155 days (five months), which means they have bought Bitcoin since the $69K all-time high in November 2021.
This group primarily consists of traders who bought the top and impatient dip buyers who entered the market during the crash, and they have been selling their coins at a loss for the past few months, as the price kept dropping lower.
However, the short-term holders have recently started realizing profits following the recent price rally. Considering the price action in the last 155 days, these are market participants who have bought the dip below $45K during the past couple of months. These coins coming back into circulation should be met with enough demand in the upcoming weeks, or this selling pressure may cause another drop in the short term.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.